The upper-level pattern was characterized by a broad, stationary trough over the western CONUS.  Over the next week, several short-wave trough would rotate around the main trough and move through the southern jet stream causing several severe events over the Southern Plains.  Today would be the first day.

 Moist air from the Gulf of Mexico had been steadily streaming northward across the Southern Plains for 2-3 days.  Locations east of the Caprock in Texas (and farther east into Oklahoma) had dewpoints well into the 60s.  Veering wind fields with height also promoted rotating storms with the possibility of tornadoes.  Cold temperatures aloft suggested the large hail was also likely.  However, an advancing cold front from the Northern and Central Plains was complicating matters. 

The key to the whole day was how far south would the cold front make it.   In the preceding week, the GFS was blowing the cold front all the way to the Hill Country of Texas.  Subsequent runs began slowing the cold front down and eventually stalling it somewhere across the northern Texas Panhandle.  The NAM was taking the cold front through most of the Texas Panhandle, stalled it along a line from Friona-Tulia-Wheeler-Gage.  Only time would tell which model would verify.  However, in both situations, a dryline was progged to set up just along the Caprock with the triple point setting up somewhere in the area of the NE Texas Panhandle.

I was off work this day, and the proximity of the target zone provided a perfect opportunity for me to log my first chase of the year.

Target:  Wheeler, TX